Value and growth investors seldom agree on what's important for evaluating a stock. But here are seven questions every investor, regardless of persuasion, should ask before plunking down money:
1.What does the company do?
Do you know what your company actually does for a living? Is it in a hot growth sector or in a saturated industry whose best growth days are long gone? Or does it make those proverbial buggy whips?
That first question is not as silly as it sounds. Sometimes we become so focused on analyzing the numbers that we forget about the big picture.
You probably know what the company does if you're looking at the likes of Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, news, msgs) or Google (GOOG, news, msgs). But it's a different story when you start examining at lesser-known names. For example, what do Icon (ICLR, news, msgs) and Knoll (KNL, news, msgs) do for a living?
You can find out in a New York minute by checking MSN Money's Company Report pages. Though only one paragraph, each report describes a company's products and/or services in pretty good detail, and it's written in understandable English.
The reports give you more than enough information to gain a feel for the company's products and/or services. For instance, Icon provides outsourced clinical-trial services to pharmaceutical companies, and Knoll makes office furniture.
What do you do with that wisdom? It depends. If you were looking for hot growth stocks, you would probably find Icon of interest but drop Knoll like a hot potato.
On the other hand, value investors, knowing that the market ignores unglamorous industries, seek out stocks such as Knoll in hopes of finding an undervalued gem.
2.How many widgets is it selling?
Companies are in business to sell products and/or services. We're talking big numbers here. Most publicly traded corporations rack up sales running into the hundreds of millions of dollars annually.
However, as an investor, you often encounter companies with a supposedly hot product on the drawing board but with little or no sales. When you buy such companies, you're buying the "story," which may or may not come to pass. That's risky business.
Risk-averse investors should stick with companies racking up at least $500 million in annual sales. Does that limit the field too much? Not really. When I checked recently, more than 1,700 U.S.-based stocks fit the bill.
More-adventurous investors can go lower, but the risk meter goes off the chart when you get below $100 million in 12 months of sales. At the very least, disqualify stocks with less than $10 million in sales in the most recent quarter.
You can find the past four quarters' figures (look for "last 12 months") on each Company Report page, and you'll spot the quarterly figures on the Highlights report in the page's Financial Results section.
You can't apply minimum-sales criteria to banks and similar institutions, because their income comes from interest earned, which usually doesn't show up in the sales totals.
3.Just how profitable is the company?
For stocks, profitability means more than not losing money. Here's why.
Consider two hypothetical companies, company A and company B, both selling widgets for $100 each. After considering all expenses, company A makes $50 on each widget sold, while company B makes $25 per widget. If they both sell a million widgets a year, company A's profit totals $50 million compared with company B's $25 million.
Thus, each year, company A has $25 million more extra cash than company B. It can use that cash to develop new widgets, build more factories, pay dividends, etc. There is no way that company B can keep up with company A's spending without going outside to raise more cash, either by borrowing or by selling more shares. Both alternatives diminish shareholders' earnings.
Obviously, you'd be better off owning stock in company A than in company B, but how do you know which is which?
4.That's where profitability measures come into play.
Return on equity, or ROE, the ratio of a company's 12-month net income to its shareholder equity (book value), is the most widely used profitability gauge. But relying on ROE has a downside. The way the math works, all else being equal, the higher the debt, the higher the ROE.
By contrast, you calculate return on assets, or ROA, by dividing net income by total assets, which includes liabilities. Consequently, all else being equal, the lower the debt, the higher the ROA.
You can see ROAs in the Investment Returns section of the Key Ratios report (under Financial Results). Look for companies with ROAs above 10%. Avoid ROAs below 5%.
Growth investors should pay most attention to the trailing-12-months ROA. However, because value stock candidates may have recently stumbled, value investors should focus on the five-year-average profitability figures.
Cash flow measures the amount of money that moved into or out of a company's bank accounts during a reporting period.
Cash flow is a better profit measure than earnings because it's harder to finagle bank balances than numbers like depreciation schedules that figure into earnings. In fact, many companies that report positive earnings are actually losing money when you count the cash.
Operating cash flow measures the cash flow attributable to the company's main business. You can find it on either the quarterly or annual cash flow statement (see Statements under Financial Results). However, the quarterly statements are timelier. That said, be aware that the quarterly cash flow columns reflect the year-to-date (cumulative) totals, not the individual quarters' results.
You want companies with cash flowing in, not out. So look for positive numbers in the Net Cash from Operating Activities row. Though any positive number is OK, it's best if the operating cash flow exceeds the net income (top line) for the same period.
5.Is the company submerged in debt?
High debt is not always a bad thing. For instance, there's nothing wrong with a company borrowing at 6% if it can put the funds to work earning 12%. Nevertheless, the higher the debt, the more susceptible a company is to rising interest rates. Rising rates result in higher debt-service costs, which subtract from earnings.
The financial leverage ratio (total assets divided by shareholders' equity) is an all-purpose debt gauge. A company with no debt would have a financial leverage ratio of 1, and the higher the ratio, the more debt.
As a rule of thumb, avoid companies with leverage ratios above 5, which is the average of S&P 500 Index ($INX) stocks, and lower is better.
You can't apply the leverage ratio -- or any other debt measure, for that matter -- to banks or other financial organizations. For them, borrowed cash is their inventory. Financial companies always carry high debt compared with companies in other industries.
6.Any bad news lately?
Negative news, such as an earnings shortfall, problems with a new product or an accounting restatement, not only pressure a company's share price but often portend even more such news on the way.
Bad news is the death knell for growth stocks, and growth investors should avoid all such stocks.
Even value types, who seek out stocks beaten down by bad news, should wait on the sidelines until they're reasonably sure that there is no more to come.
Is cash flowing in or out?
Think months, not weeks.
Take a look at the company's latest doings by selecting Recent News at the left of a stock's quote page.
7.Which way are forecasts moving?
There is much to be gained by paying attention to analysts' earnings forecasts.
MSN Money displays consensus earnings forecasts for most stocks. These are the average forecasts from all analysts covering a stock. The consensus numbers tend to move in trends. Why? I'm not sure. One reason may be that after one analyst makes a significant change, others re-examine their models and then revise their estimates in the same direction.
Changes in consensus earnings forecasts move stock prices. A positive forecast trend moves prices up and vice versa.
You can use the Consensus EPS Trend report (under Earnings Estimates) to see current, next-quarter and fiscal-year estimates going back 90 days. Focus on the fiscal-year data and ignore 1-cent changes. Avoid negatively trending stocks -- that is, stocks for which the latest fiscal-year estimates are more than 2 cents below the figures of 90 days ago.
Answering these seven questions will help you make better investing decisions, but they are just a start. Dig deeply and learn all you can. The more you know about your stocks, the better your results.
At the time of publication, Harry Domash owned or controlled shares of the following company mentioned in this column: Icon.
把錢投入股市有可能讓你受到意外的打擊,要避免這種情況就應(yīng)該做出正確的分析。
價值投資者和成長型投資者對用什么來評估一支股票最重要這一點總是各持已見,但這里所說的七個問題是每個投資者,不管他相不相信,都應(yīng)該在買股之前問的問題。
一、這個公司是做什么的?
你知道這個公司是做什么來賺錢的嗎?它是屬于高發(fā)展行業(yè)還是飽和行業(yè)(最好的發(fā)展時期早已過去)?或者它做的產(chǎn)品按諺語來說是“趕馬車的鞭子”(指完全落伍的行業(yè))?
第一個問題并不象咋聽之下這么愚蠢,有時我們會太注重分析數(shù)據(jù)而忘了最重要的事。
如果你在關(guān)注的是類似于沃爾瑪或是google的股票,你可能知道這些公司是干什么的,但如果你現(xiàn)在開始查看一些不太熟悉的名字,那情況就大不相同了,比如Icon和Knoll公司的股票,你知道它們是做什么的嗎?
你可以用一分鐘的時間,通過查看MSN財經(jīng)上的公司報告網(wǎng)頁得出答案。雖然只有一頁,但報告已很詳細(xì)地說明了公司的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù),用淺顯易懂的英語。
報告能給你足夠的信息讓你對公司的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)有所了解。例如,Icon為制藥企業(yè)提供臨床試驗外包服務(wù),Knoll制造辦公家具。
了解了這些后你會怎么做呢?這就不一定了。如果你在尋找高成長性的股票,你可能會對Icon很感興趣而把Knoll當(dāng)燙手山芋。
而另一方面,價值投資者知道市場會忽視一些平凡的行業(yè),所以他們會挑選象Knoll這樣的股票,以希望找到一顆被低估的寶石。
二、這個公司的主營產(chǎn)品銷售有多少?
公司的業(yè)務(wù)就是銷售產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)。我們這里所說的是一個很大的數(shù)字,大部分上市企業(yè)的年銷售額會達(dá)到幾億美元。
但是,作為一個投資者,你有時候會遇到一些公司,描述它們生產(chǎn)一種應(yīng)該很受歡迎的產(chǎn)品,但實際上銷售很少或者根本沒有銷售。當(dāng)你買這類公司時,你買的是一個“故事”,可能會成現(xiàn)實也可能不會。這是很冒險的事。
想規(guī)避風(fēng)險的投資者應(yīng)該堅持選擇年銷售超過5億美元的公司。這個要求下是不是可供選擇的股票太少了?不是的,按最近的情況看,有超過1700家美國公司的股票符合這個要求。
比較激進(jìn)的投資者可以把這個數(shù)字定得低一些, 但是12個月的銷售額低于1億美元的公司風(fēng)險就很難預(yù)測了。不過說到底,至少至少,不能選擇最近一個季度的銷售額低于1000萬美元的公司股票。
你可以在每個公司報告網(wǎng)頁上找到前四個季度的數(shù)據(jù)(查找“最近十二個月”),在“財務(wù)狀況”的“重要報告”中可以看到每個季度的數(shù)據(jù)。
不過這個最小銷售額標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不適用于銀行或類似公司,因為他們的主要收入來自利息收入,通常不在銷售額中體現(xiàn)出來。
三、這個公司有多賺錢?
對于股票來說,盈利性比不虧損重要得多,為什么呢?
假定有兩個公司,A公司和B公司,都以100美元一件的價格銷售產(chǎn)品。除去所有成本后,A公司每件產(chǎn)品可得到50美元利潤,而B公司只能得到20美元利潤。如果它們一年都銷售100萬件產(chǎn)品,A公司利潤是5000萬美元而B公司只有2500萬美元。
因此,每年A公司比B公司多得到2500萬美元的現(xiàn)金,它可以用這些現(xiàn)金去開發(fā)新產(chǎn)品,建更多的工廠,支付股息等等。而B公司完全不能跟A公司一樣花錢,B公司要得到更多現(xiàn)金,只能靠借款或出售股票,這兩者都會使股票持有者的收益減少。
顯然,你買A公司的股票比買B公司好。但是你怎么知道哪個公司是A公司,哪個公司是B公司呢?這里,盈利性指標(biāo)就有作用了。
凈資產(chǎn)收益率,又稱ROE,指公司十二個月的凈收入與股東權(quán)益(帳面價值)的比率,是用得最多的盈利性指標(biāo)。但是依賴ROE會有不足。從數(shù)學(xué)角度來說,假設(shè)其它條件一樣,負(fù)債越多,ROE越高。
相反,我們來計算資產(chǎn)收益率,又稱ROA,指凈收入除以總資產(chǎn)(包括負(fù)債)。結(jié)果是:假設(shè)其它條件一樣,負(fù)債越少,ROA越高。
你可以在“投資收益”欄的主要比率報告中找到ROA(在財務(wù)狀況下面)。尋找ROA高于10%的公司,避開ROA低于5%的公司。
注重增長的投資者最關(guān)注的是最近12個月的ROA,但因為價值型股票有可能目前情況并不好,所以價值投資者應(yīng)該關(guān)注五年平均盈利數(shù)據(jù)。
四、公司的現(xiàn)金流是流入還是流出?
現(xiàn)金流衡量的是一個公司在報告期內(nèi)從公司銀行帳戶中流入或流出的金額。
現(xiàn)金流是一個比收益更好的衡量利潤的指標(biāo),因為在銀行存款數(shù)目上造假比在另一些計入收益的數(shù)目,如折舊表上造假要難。事實上,如果你計算一下現(xiàn)金,一些報告上說很賺錢的公司實際上是虧損的。
經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流衡量的是因公司主營業(yè)務(wù)需要引起的現(xiàn)金流動。你可以找到季度或年現(xiàn)金流量表(在財務(wù)狀況下面有“流量表”)。但是季度性的流量表更及時,要知道它表明的季度現(xiàn)金流量是指從年初至今的累計值,而不只是這個季度的狀況。
你肯定希望公司的現(xiàn)金是流入而不是流出的,所以在經(jīng)營性收入里找一下現(xiàn)金凈額的正值。雖然任何正值都是好的,但如果經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流在同一時期超過凈收入(在表的第一行)是最好的。
五、公司是否陷入債務(wù)中?
高負(fù)債并不總是壞事。比如說,如果一個公司借了6%利率的貸款用于生產(chǎn),可以獲得12%的收益,這樣的負(fù)債就完全不是壞事。但是,負(fù)債越多,越容易受到利益上漲的影響。利率上漲會導(dǎo)致利息成本上升,收益減少。
“財務(wù)杠桿比率”(總資產(chǎn)除以股東權(quán)益)是一個通用的債務(wù)指標(biāo)。一個沒有債務(wù)的公司財務(wù)杠桿比率為1,比率越高,負(fù)債越多。
憑經(jīng)驗來看,要避開比率高于5的公司,這是500種標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾指數(shù)股票的平均值,然后越低越好。
財務(wù)杠桿比率或是其它負(fù)債指標(biāo)都不適用于銀行或其它金融企業(yè)。對它們來說,借錢是它們的投資。金融企業(yè)的負(fù)債總是比其它行業(yè)的公司高。
六、公司最近有什么壞消息嗎?
負(fù)面消息,比如收入下滑、新產(chǎn)品遇到問題或會計報表修改,不僅僅會對公司的股價帶來壓力,而且常常會預(yù)示著前面還有更多這樣的消息出現(xiàn)。
壞消息對成長型股票來說是喪鐘,所以注重成長性的投資者要避開所有這類股票。
即使是喜歡從被壞消息打擊的股票中選股的價值投資者,都應(yīng)該保持旁觀,直到確信這種壞消息不會再來。
考慮幾個月內(nèi)的消息,而不是幾個星期內(nèi)。
可以通過股票報價頁面的“最新消息”欄看一下公司最近發(fā)生做的事。
七、預(yù)計公司會往哪個方向發(fā)展?
關(guān)心分析師對收益的預(yù)測,你可以得到很多信息。
MSN財經(jīng)上對大部分股票的收益都有一個預(yù)測,這是所有分析師對這個股票預(yù)測的平均值。這個數(shù)值往往會朝一個方向發(fā)展。為什么?我也不確定。也許原因之一是一位分析師得出一個明顯的變化后,其他人會重新檢查他們的分析模型,然后向同一個方向修正他們的估計。
你可以用“每股盈利趨勢預(yù)測報告”(在收益預(yù)測下)看一下90天來分析師對目前、下季度和會計年度的預(yù)測。把注意力放在會計年度每股盈利數(shù)據(jù),不要在意一美分的變化。避開盈利趨勢向下的股票--也就是最近的年度每股盈利預(yù)測比90天前的數(shù)據(jù)降低2美分以上的股票。
總結(jié):問這七個問題可以幫助你更好地作出投資決定,但這只是一個開始。盡你可能地深挖下去,了解更多。對股票了解越多,你能得到的結(jié)果越好。