手機(jī)版
Can the future really be told? Personally I think there are certain events that can be predicted, which is mostly down to using common sense in your judgement of the topic in question.
Take the current recession for instance. Without a shadow of a doubt the present recession the world is going through right now could have been predicted as early as 2007. How, you ask? Practical wisdom informs us that when prices for goods reach their highest peak, the only way they can go, is down. House prices reached their peak during 2007, and now they're dropping in value at an ever-increasing rate of speed, with more and more people losing their homes in the process. This trend can be predicted to continue throughout 2009 and well into 2010. Sadly, it appears that not a single government minister or high-ranking banking official saw it coming - but more than one investment broker did and they amassed millions in their knowledge of what was to come. Common sense, practical wisdom, call it what you will, because when "silly prices" are in place, you know it just can't last.
I fear that Pakistan is going to experience a very violent period during 2009. The violence and destruction will not come from neighbouring India, it will come from Islamic terrorist groups. Their intent will be to strike deep and hard, and weaken and attempt to bring down the Pakistan government. The ultimate goal of this will be to create a safe haven for themselves, and a base from which to spread terror.
The United States will encounter tornadoes of such magnitude never experienced before, with the cost of the devastation running into billions of dollars. Alas, you don't need to be a certified accountant to realise that all this extra financial burden will indeed take many years to repay. The recession for the United States will run for years to come.
The United Kingdom will see unemployment go above the 3-million mark during November 2009. Though Alistair Darling has predicted that Britain will see an upturn in the economy in the summer of 2009, my personal prediction is that come next summer our economy will be in its worst shape for decades, and the present recession will have only just begun to bite by then. High street stores will fail and close by the hundreds. Crime will inevitably rise as a result.
My prediction for the worldwide weather is record-breaking floods and gale-force winds. And this trend will continue as the years roll by, not due to mankind being a bad caretaker but rather - nature being nature. Common sense, practical wisdom, call it what you will ...
To end on a lighter note, I believe 2009 will be the year when Earth will witness the first extraterrestrial visitor. And if we're fortunate enough, this may possibly be the beginning of our salvation.
未來真能預(yù)知嗎？ 在我看來，有一些事情是可以預(yù)知的，這些事情是最明顯的，運(yùn)用常識就可以回答標(biāo)題中的問題。
就以當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退為例。 毫無疑問，現(xiàn)在全球所面臨的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退早在2007年初就可以預(yù)料得到。你會問，那怎么預(yù)料？ 實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)告訴我們，當(dāng)商品價(jià)格達(dá)到最高峰，再往下走，就只能下降了。 2007年房產(chǎn)價(jià)格達(dá)到最高峰，現(xiàn)在其價(jià)值卻以之前的增長速度下降，越來越多的人在失去曾經(jīng)擁有的住所。 可以預(yù)計(jì)這種趨勢會持續(xù)到2009年，并可能延續(xù)到2010年�？杀氖牵孟駴]有一位政府官員或銀行高管預(yù)見這個(gè)趨勢的到來，但是很多投資經(jīng)紀(jì)卻看到了這個(gè)趨勢，他們知道即將發(fā)生什么，利用這一點(diǎn)聚斂了大筆財(cái)富。 不管是常識，還是實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)，隨你怎么定義，都說明價(jià)格到了不可理喻的程度時(shí)，就不會持久下去。
我擔(dān)心巴基斯坦會度過一個(gè)動蕩的2009年。動蕩和破壞不是來自鄰邦印度，而是來自伊斯蘭教的恐怖組織。 恐怖組織將會沉重打擊巴基斯坦政府，削弱并搞垮巴基斯坦政府。 其終極目標(biāo)會是為自己創(chuàng)造一個(gè)安全的港口，一個(gè)散播恐怖的基地。
美國將會遇到前所未見的龍卷風(fēng)，遭遇幾十億成本的災(zāi)難。 哎，就算你不是一名執(zhí)業(yè)會計(jì)師，也可以意識到所有這些額外的財(cái)政負(fù)擔(dān)到底要花多少年來補(bǔ)償。 美國的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退會持續(xù)多年。
英國的失業(yè)人數(shù)將會在2009年超過3百萬。雖然Alistair Darling曾經(jīng)預(yù)言，英國的經(jīng)濟(jì)會在2009年第三季度回暖，但是我的個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)是，第三季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)會是幾十年來最惡劣的，并且眼前的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退到那時(shí)只是走向惡化的開始。 鬧市區(qū)的商店將會成批的倒閉關(guān)門。 犯罪率的上升是不可避免的結(jié)果。
對于全球氣候，我預(yù)計(jì)會出現(xiàn)打破歷史記錄的洪水和烈風(fēng)。 而且這個(gè)趨勢將會持續(xù)多年，不是因?yàn)槿祟惒欢谜湎�，而是因�(yàn)樽匀挥兄陨硪?guī)律。 不管是常識，還是實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)，隨你怎么定義……
結(jié)尾處說點(diǎn)樂觀的。我相信地球會在2009年迎來第一次外星生物的造訪。 如果我們夠幸運(yùn)，他們的造訪可能成為拯救我們的開始。
